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Archive for December, 2008

What is the best way to win the most money in craps?

Friday, December 26th, 2008

What is the best way to win the most money in craps?

Going to Vegas and I like Craps. I just want to be a better player.

Question posted by: mulchman

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Craps Strategies 2

Thursday, December 25th, 2008

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Want Proof Dice Control is a Scam?by William Enslen Jr

Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way!

Is it legitimate or a scam? Let’s take a look. I suspect that the notion of dice control is a big-money industry (perhaps, multi-million dollars annually). You name it and they sell it: books, tapes, seminars, full-size practice craps tables, half-size tables (a.k.a. throwing stations), toss bars, dice, and practice grippers. But is it real or just an elaborate hoax to swindle you out of your hard-earned money? The answer seems so obvious. Sadly, the world will never be without plenty of people so blinded by their burning desire to win big that they can’t or won’t stop long enough to think twice before handing over their money.

If you’ve read my other articles and Ebook, you know my thoughts on the world of dice control, dice setting, precision shooting, or whatever else you want to call it. In my opinion, it’s a silly world called Fantasyland. I won’t regurgitate my other works so let’s get to the point of this article. You want proof that dice control is a scam to rip you off? Consider one simple question and its answer. Take a deep breath and try to relax your overwhelming desire to get rich off the casino. Now, ask yourself, "Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?" Be honest with your answer.

Again, "Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?" Of course not. The casino has the right to deny service to any player for any reason, whether you’re too drunk, too obnoxious, too lucky, too skilled, or too anything. If they don’t want you playing for any reason, they can tell you to leave and there’s nothing you, the law, or anyone can do about it. Consider blackjack card counters. Card counting is entirely legal, but if the casino thinks a player is card counting (and, thus, has a small advantage over the house), it immediately removes him from the game. The casino never accepts a player advantage. The casino always has the advantage–always. Same with craps. If the casino believes a player has an advantage over the house by means of controlling the dice, it removes him from the game. The bottom line is that when the dice hit the back wall, no one knows how they’ll bounce off those rubber pyramids. That’s why casinos allow dice setters to use their wacky tossing routines.

Again, "Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?" I’ve never heard of any of the so-called dice doctors, dice wizards, or famous multi-book dice-control authors getting thrown out of a casino because of their dice-tossing skills. Have you? According to their websites and written works, they routinely play in casinos across the globe allegedly beating the crap out of the casino. So, ask yourself again, "Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?"

Casinos have been around for a long time. They’re big business. Consider the multi-billion dollar resorts in Vegas (yes, that’s "billion" with a "b"). Do you honestly think they haven’t thoroughly examined the legitimacy of dice control? A player advantage smacks those mega-businesses right where it hurts–in their wallets. Do you honestly think the casinos would tolerate and allow a player to play with an advantage over the house? The answer is obvious to me. Is it obvious to you? Put yourself in the casinos’ shoes. If you have the right to deny service to anyone for any reason, why would you allow anyone to play with an advantage over you, especially at a craps table? I doubt that you would.

If you agree that casinos do allow dice-control specialists to play, and if you agree that casinos don’t allow players to play with an advantage over the house, then what does that tell you about all the books, articles, websites, newsletters, and magazines that claim you can beat the crap out of the casino by using dice control? I don’t see how the answer could be any more obvious or simple. Casinos allow dice setters to play; casinos don’t allow a player to play with an advantage over the house; therefore, it stands to reason that the casino doesn’t believe the dice setter can gain an advantage over the house. It’s that simple. You wanted proof that dice control is a scam? That sounds like awfully convincing proof to me, how about you? If it’s true that the casino doesn’t believe the dice setter can gain an advantage over the house, then why should you believe it?

If you still don’t see the light, it’s probably because you’re desperately clinging to your blazing desire to beat the crap out of the casino. You want so badly the idea of dice control to be legitimate that you can taste it. You think, "Regardless of what you say, I saw a guy last night set the dice and he rolled point after point. It worked for him, so how can you say it doesn’t work?" Simple. It was his turn to get lucky at that particular instant in time. Everyone has good times, mediocre times, and bad times. Even the dice setter gets lucky occasionally. The question is whether the dice setter is consistently a winner. He’s not. His hot streak turns cold, just as it does for everyone. Minutes after his hot roll, the dice setter again goes through his wacky motions, but this time he immediately rolls a losing 7-out. As we learned in my other articles, it’s not the player’s dice-shooting skill or the player’s betting system that makes him a winner, it’s the distribution variance. The game is designed for the player to lose, so the player’s only hope for winning lies with the phenomenon called variance. Nothing more, nothing less. (Read my other article titled, Variance.)

One more time, "Do you think that the casino would allow truly skilled dice setters to play with an advantage over the house, no matter how slight?" Rationally think about that question and its answer, and then decide for yourself if the notion of dice control is a scam. If the casino doesn’t believe dice setters can gain an advantage over the house, then why should you believe it?

For a detailed explanation of why I believe dice control is pure nonsense, please visit my website and read the free sample chapter on dice setting from my new Ebook.

Now you know! Remember, learn how to play craps the right way.

About the Author:

Bill Enslen is a reliability engineer who routinely works with statistics. Having played and analyzed craps for 25 years, he has compiled his winning secrets in a new Ebook, which you can sample at Learn How to Play Craps the Right Way. Be smart, play smart, and learn how to play craps the right way.

Craps Tips

Saturday, December 13th, 2008

Craps Odds – Getting the Best Odds to Win!by Sacha Tarkovsky

As craps is a game of real chance you need to focus on the bets that give you the best odds in craps to win.

Craps Odds of success with the best bets are surprisingly good and you can play at almost even with the house, making craps odds on best bets, better than those in other games of chance such as roulette and slots.

Let’s look at the bets with the best odds in craps.

To understand the game better, and why Craps Odds on the right bets give you great chance of winning, lets look at the various bets you can make, and what advantage (in percent) they give to the house.

Although there are over 40 bets you can make in Craps, here are the most popular and the odds (advantage) they bring to the house.

SEVEN -16.66%

ELEVEN -16.66%

PLACE BETS – 1.51%.

BUY BETS – 4.76%. Note: Player pays 5% "vigorish" to get true odds on all numbers. Only the 4 and 10 make buy bets are worth it. They reduce the house edge to 4.76%.

HARD WAYS This bet can be made in two ways on 4, 6, 8 and 10. Payoff is 9 to 1 on the 6 or 8 and 7 to 1 on the 4 or 10. The house edge is 9.09% and 11.11%, respectively

PASS LINE – 1.414%

DON’T PASS – 1.402%

COME BETS & DON’T COME Same house percentages of 1.414% and 1.402%, as pass line bets.

THE FIELD – 5.55%.

ANY CRAPS – 11.11%

BIG 6 & 8 – 9.09%

How to get it even.

As each throw of the dice is unique, systems cannot predict anything, especially what will fall on the next throw.

All you will need to know, to play well and win is how to bet with the best Craps Odds bets.

First, you need to know how to bet on the passline and then how to apply Craps Odds.

The passline bet is first made before the new shooter begins his throw. If he throws a 7 or 11, you win with him. If he throws a 2, 3, or 12, you lose with him. But if he throws a 4 or 5 or 6 or 8 or 9 or 10, he achieves a "point" (a number he will roll to make again before he rolls a 7), and here you can apply Craps Odds.

The Odds Bet

As we said, the Odds bet will reduce the house advantage. Here is how it’s done.

After you bet on the passline and the shooter has his point, the house may allow you to make an additional bet known as an Odds bet. You place this bet behind your original passline bet on the table.

If the shooter makes his point, you are paid even money for your passline bet and additionally you are paid the true odds for you odds bet reducing the house advantage. These are:

If the point is 4 or 10 your win is paid 2 to 1.

If the point is 5 or 9 your win is paid 3 to 2.

If the point is 6 or 8 your win is paid 6 to 5.

Some casinos will allow you to take double Crap Odds on your passline bet. For example if you put $50 on the passline, you would be able to place odds bet of $100.

Statistically, the passline bet has a house advantage of 1.41%. When you place an additional odds bet, you bring this way down.

A passline bet with single odds has a house edge of 0.85% and with double odds the edge is further too just 0.61% 4, 5, 6 Times Odds. A player sometimes allowed to take three/ four / five times odds, depending on the point number.

If the point is 4 or 10 you can take 3 times odds

If the point is 5 or 9 you can take 4 times odds.

If the point is 6 or 8 you can take 5 times odds.

Always take odds when you have the opportunity to do so The best bet?

When betting you need to keep the odds of craps bets in your mind and only play the ones with the best chances of success.

For right bettors (those betting with the shooter) are pass and come bets with full odds on both for wrong bettors (those betting with the house) are don’t pass and don’t come with full odds on both.

Focus on the bets with the best craps Odds and you will increase your chances of winning dramatically and keep in mind craps is a fun game to but more fun, when you’re winning!

About the Author:

More FREE info

On how to win at craps and all other major casino games including: Articles, features and downloads visit http://www.net-planet.org/games/craps.html

Craps Strategies

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Learn to Play Craps – Tips and Strategies: Varianceby William Enslen Jr

If the casino has such an advantage over the player, why on Earth does anyone play the game? My guess is that most people don’t have a clue they’re playing a losing game. Others are so arrogant they think they can outplay the casino and turn a negative expectation into a positive, even over the long term. Others know they’ll lose, but play anyway for fun and excitement. As a knowledgeable player, why should you even bother playing a game you know will beat you? As a knowledgeable player, is there any hope you can walk away a winner, at least once in a while, even though you’re at a statistical disadvantage?

Craps is a game of numbers and statistics, with the house having a built-in advantage. Since craps is based on statistics, let’s find a way to use statistics to our advantage. You’ll never beat the casino over the long haul, but you can, indeed, beat it in the moments of time when the distribution hiccups and things go your way.

Let’s talk about "variance," which is the average squared deviation of each number from the mean of a data set. Huh? Don’t worry; we don’t need a Harvard math degree to understand this. It’s simply a measure of how spread out the data is. Let’s consider the familiar coin-flip example.

Suppose we flip a coin 10,000 times. We expect heads to appear about 5,000 times and tails to appear about 5,000 times. Suppose we bet $1 on heads for each flip. If these are even-money bets, we expect to break even–or close to it after those 10,000 flips. As illustrated in one of my other articles, the house doesn’t give us even money when it loses. In our coin-flip example, instead of paying us $1 for each loss, suppose they pay us only $0.96. With this built-in house advantage, our negative expectation is to lose about $200 after 10,000 flips. Here’s the math. If we expect about 5,000 heads and about 5,000 tails to appear, then we expect to lose 5000 x $1 = $5000; and win 5000 x $0.96 = $4800. $5000 – $4800 = $200. This is called "negative expectation."

Now, of those 10,000 flips, suppose we focus on only 30 of them, and we continue betting on heads. Of those 30 flips, we might see heads 25 times and tails only 5 times. This data fluctuation shows that, for a limited number of flips over a short period of time, we can get lucky and experience Nirvana where things go our way. I call it a "Nirvana hiccup" in the distribution that causes a relatively high variance. In this example of only 30 flips, we win $24 for the 25 heads (i.e., 25 x $0.96 = $24), and lose $5 for the 5 tails (i.e., 5 x $1 = $5), which gives us a net win of $19. This short term variance temporarily removes the long-term negative expectation, which means there are, indeed, times when we can walk away a winner.

Although you’ll lose in the long-term, there are times when you’ll win because of variance. Suppose you take a three day vacation in Vegas once a year and play four one hour craps sessions each day (i.e., a total of 12 hours for the trip). You could conceivably get extremely lucky and hit that Nirvana hiccup during each session, and then go home a big winner. In that case, you go home thinking you’re a genius, a craps god, invincible, a world-class gambling stud. Yeah, sure, okay. I don’t recommend quitting your day job.

Now, suppose you’re a Vegas local who plays an hour every day after work. In this case, it’s clear that whatever few Nirvana hiccups you experience will be properly adjusted over time such that you’ll lose your shirt in the long-term.

Therefore, the infrequent craps player can, indeed, consistently win if she’s lucky enough to hit those Nirvana hiccups. However, the frequent long term player has no chance of coming out a winner at the end of his craps life. Part of the secret to craps is knowing how to be around for those occasional Nirvana hiccups where the dice fall your way.

If you don’t want to lose your shirt, you must learn the secret to craps. Don’t fall for bogus winning systems or ridiculous dice-setting claims. Distribution variance is the only thing that makes you a short-term winner. Nothing else. No silly dice setting technique. No bogus winning system. It’s the distribution variance and nothing else. Got it? Be smart. Play smart. Learn the secret to craps.

Now you know!

About the Author:

Bill Enslen is a reliability engineer who routinely works with statistics. Having played and analyzed the game for 25 years, he has compiled his winning secrets in a new eBook, which you can sample at http://www.learnthesecrettocraps.com/

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